Decision theory made relevant: Between the software and the shrink

Decision theory offers a formal approach to decision making, which is often viewed and taught as the rational way to approach managerial decisions. Half a century ago it generated high hopes of capturing and perhaps replacing intuition, and providing the “right” answer in practically all managerial situations. Today it seems fair to say that decision theory has not lived up to these expectations. Behavioral science provides ample evidence that managers fail to follow the dicta of decision theory, even when these are explained to them. As a result, executives often find decision theory frustrating and useless and prefer to rely on their intuition. This paper suggests that this extreme conclusion is unwarranted and calls for a re-appraisal of decision theory. We propose that it should not always be regarded as a mathematical tool that produces the answer; rather, it can be viewed as a framework for a dialog between the decision maker and the decision theorist. In one extreme, the decision theorist studies the problem and provides the “correct’’ answer. But in another, the decision theorist only challenges the decision maker's intuition and logic. In between, a whole gamut of possible dialogs exists, in which decision theory doesn't replace intuition, but supports and refines it.     

ECONOMICS: BETWEEN PREDICTION AND CRITICISM

We suggest that one way in which economic analysis is useful is by offering a critique of reasoning. According to this view, economic theory may be useful not only by providing predictions, but also by pointing out weaknesses of arguments. It is argued that when a theory requires a nontrivial act of interpretation, its roles in producing predictions and offering critiques vary in a substantial way. We offer a formal model in which these different roles can be captured.     

Bank acquisition of non-bank firms An empirical analysis of administrative decisions

This study uses stock price data to examine certain aspects of Federal Reserve Boards' administrative decisions regarding non-bank acquisitions by bank holding companies (BHCs). The results suggest that stockholders of BHCs whose acquisition plans were approved realized positive abnormal returns following the announcement of the acquisition of a non-bank firm. This result is consistent with the synergy interpretation of non-bank acquisitions by BHCs. Another finding is that stockholders of BHCs that were denied permission to acquire non-bank firms sustained significant losses during the five weeks following the Board's decision. These abnormal losses can be interpreted as foregone synergy rents or as a market reaction to the Board's signal that the BHC in question is excessively risky.     

When are preferred shares preferred? Theory and empirical evidence

This paper demonstrates that preferred stock may arise as an optimal security in a tax-induced equilibrium. This result is driven by graduated tax schedules and by uncertainty. In a more general sense, our results can be interpreted as a template for including any security with a different tax treatment in a firm's capital structure. The first part of the paper demonstrates that the Miller equilibrium framework can accommodate more than two securities if different investor classes are taxed differently on each security and the tax schedule for each investor group is upward sloping. We then simplify the tax schedule, but introduce uncertainty, which implies the possibility of bankruptcy and the possible loss of tax shelters. The interaction of tax rates and seniority now affects the contribution of each security to after-tax firm value, as in some states the firm may not be able to pay either interest (or dividends) or even principal to its various claimholders. It is shown why and how these features, i.e. the various tax rates and seniority, determine the financing equilibrium, which is obtained by equating the expected marginal tax benefit of all securities. We demonstrate that non-profitable firms will tend to issue preferred shares whereas profitable firms will not find preferred stock advantageous in our framework. Comparative statics with respect to various tax rates are derived as well. These predictions are tested using a large sample of firms for the last 25 years. The empirical testing broadly confirms the theoretical predictions.     

Predatory lending and the subprime crisis

We measure the effect of a 2006 antipredatory pilot program in Chicago on mortgage default rates to test whether predatory lending was a key element in fueling the subprime crisis. Under the program, risky borrowers or risky mortgage contracts or both triggered review sessions by housing counselors who shared their findings with the state regulator. The pilot program cut market activity in half, largely through the exit of lenders specializing in risky loans and through a decline in the share of subprime borrowers. Our results suggest that predatory lending practices contributed to high mortgage default rates among subprime borrowers, raising them by about a third.     

Explicating the Reverse Internationalization Processes of Firms

ABSTRACT

Reverse internationalization (RI) is a crucial phenomenon in a world of globalization; however, research on RI remains scarce. In light of the 2008–2009 economical global crises, many internationalizing firms worldwide have deinternationalized. Given that scholars and functionaries have been sending warning signals about imminent global crisis, revisiting the RI domain and its drivers is a timely and important research area.

This study uses a qualitative approach with a prime objective of exploratory work and theory development of RI. The study explicates the RI phenomenon further, proposes a broader RI conceptualization and an operational definition, and develops propositions and a model to direct future research and assist managers. Grounded in data emerged from field in-depth interviews of senior managers, findings show that RI emerges as a multifaceted formative construct reflecting a reduction in firms’ activities on one or more explicit dimensions. Various internal and external factors foster RI. Since firms apply sophisticated forms of international involvement, RI domain should address its wide-ranging forms with a clearer and richer view that facilitates its conceptualization. Managers learn to pay attention to likely scenarios where episodes in internationalization may arise and lead to RI and of ways to approach them.     

A multicountry measure of comovement and contagion in international markets: definition and applications

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This paper introduces a new measure of comovement and contagion of crises between countries, applies it to 16 world crises, including the current...